Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5274…e368 crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+1%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 68% +$12
crypto 30% +$4
other 1% +$3
sports 1% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 34 +5.7% -4.3% 94% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 15% -8.6%
10% -13.5% 15% -17.4%
15% -21.8% 12% -25.4%
20% -29.5% 9% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage604d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? May 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? Apr 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Apr 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? Apr 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? Feb 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? Feb 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Jan 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Nov 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $12 +$8 +73%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 04 $6 +$4 +72%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 04 $12 +$8 +70%
Will JD Vance say "Dana" during the Joe Rogan podcast? Nov 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Giants vs. Steelers Oct 31 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 28 $899 +$5 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $967 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $34 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $34 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $34 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $34 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $34 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 98¢ $34 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? BUY No 99¢ $33 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $33 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 14? BUY No 99¢ $33 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $33 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $33 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $33 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $33 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $33 118d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 134d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $16 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $33 138d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $33 139d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $33 145d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 221d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 80¢ $8 513d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $16 523d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 596d
Will JD Vance say "Dana" during the Joe Rogan podcast? BUY Yes 50¢ $9 600d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.93 · official $33.93 (match) · 70 history records