Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
52 0x5273…69f5 sports 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,874 (-4%) realized −$1,874 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%114W / 92L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$589
14 days−$12,956
30 days−$12,956
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$1,038
other 13% −$3
crypto 6% +$128
culture 3% −$665
world 2% +$247
politics 1% −$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +44.2% +30.4% 63% 60% +42.9%
≤30d 120 -12.4% -20.8% 33% 32% -81.9%
≤90d 120 -12.4% -20.8% 33% 32% -81.9%
all 206 +13.8% +2.9% 55% 54% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 54% -12.4%
10% -6.9% 50% -20.8%
15% -15.9% 39% -28.4%
20% -24.2% 29% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$167 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$1,874
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses114 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions8
Markets (closed)206 / 236
History coverage273d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 33¢ 34¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+3%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage 9z 70¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 70¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $54 +$32 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $28 +$95 +344%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $14 +$13 +89%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $41 +$12 +29%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $44 +$23 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $106 +$66 +62%
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals Jun 21 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $48 +$58 +122%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$25 +61%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$32 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $33 +$11 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $34 +$141 +418%
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colo Jun 18 $40 +$189 +474%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$21 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $50 +$54 +108%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $15 +$24 +155%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $46 +$10 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 +$35 +46%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$24 +477%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $40 +$12 +30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 +$19 +76%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? A Jun 15 $3 +$83 +2677%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $41 +$39 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $48 +$12 +26%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +118%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $65 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $36 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Both BUY 10¢ $9 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 26¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 70¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY 9z 70¢ $7 22h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $70 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 22h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $54 22h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $27 22h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 25h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $6 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $14 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $11 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $14 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $21 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $53 25h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $172 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $14 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 80¢ $27 26h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $7 28h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $44 29h
Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $35 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Eg BUY 14¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.32 · official $275.35 · 489 history records