Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5270…0cef crypto 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-1%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%278W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$107
14 days−$107
30 days−$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$376
politics 0% +$12
other 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -44.8% -50.0% 38% 27% -38.0%
≤30d 37 -44.8% -50.0% 38% 27% -38.0%
≤90d 37 -44.8% -50.0% 38% 27% -38.0%
all 594 -4.1% -13.3% 47% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 39% -11.6%
10% -21.6% 31% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 24% -27.8%
20% -36.1% 19% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses278 / 316
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 594
History coverage144d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 19 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5AM ET Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Feb 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $18 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $24 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1839 history records