Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x526e…b36f crypto 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate49%35W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$1
crypto 23% +$1
tech 22% −$2
economics 5% −$2
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 37 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 16% -9.4%
all 71 -3.6% -12.7% 49% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 10% -10.2%
10% -21.1% 4% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 3% -26.6%
20% -35.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses35 / 36
Open positions9
Markets (closed)71 / 80
History coverage228d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $320 $320 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $200 −$1 (-0%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $460 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? May 29 $400 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 25 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 25 $66 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $71 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 25 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 25 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 25 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 25 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 25 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 25 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 25 $3 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 22 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 22 $7 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 22 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 22 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 22 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 22 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 22 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 22 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 07 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 07 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 06 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 07 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Mar 09 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Mar 03 $137 $0 +0%
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February? Feb 09 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $55 $0 -0%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 02 $2 $0 -15%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 02 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $320 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $320 2d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $323 2d
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $340 2d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $339 2d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $350 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $140 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $200 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $198 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $140 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $100 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 20d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $40 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $568.42 · official $568.42 (match) · 349 history records