Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5268…135d
sports · 247 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$152,620 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$149,841 · open −$2,779
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$107,575
Realized−$149,841
Unrealized−$2,779
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses103 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$8,052
Open positions122
Markets (closed)469 / 247
Avg bet$2,836
Trades / day3348.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 122 History 469 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149,841
7 days−$149,841
14 days−$149,841
30 days−$149,841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Nuno Borges 69¢ 81¢ $12,697 $14,799 +$2,102 (+17%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Daniil Medvedev 91¢ 88¢ $12,404 $11,963 −$440 (-4%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 51¢ 59¢ $9,299 $10,705 +$1,405 (+15%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 51¢ 46¢ $8,276 $7,546 −$730 (-9%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Caty McNally 88¢ 87¢ $5,071 $5,031 −$40 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $4,134 $4,052 −$82 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 52¢ 30¢ $6,825 $3,902 −$2,923 (-43%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $3,052 $3,298 +$246 (+8%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 67¢ $2,339 $3,224 +$885 (+38%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 45¢ 70¢ $1,704 $2,677 +$973 (+57%)
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Donna Vekic 54¢ 48¢ $3,002 $2,661 −$341 (-11%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 56¢ 33¢ $3,716 $2,189 −$1,527 (-41%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 64¢ 64¢ $1,929 $1,956 +$27 (+1%)
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Barbora Palicova 37¢ 100¢ $716 $1,936 +$1,220 (+170%)
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Marin Cilic 41¢ 19¢ $3,598 $1,682 −$1,916 (-53%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 73¢ 41¢ $2,993 $1,678 −$1,315 (-44%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 56¢ 44¢ $2,020 $1,569 −$451 (-22%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 79¢ 78¢ $1,533 $1,532 −$1 (-0%)
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Thijs Boogaard 6¢ 12¢ $634 $1,433 +$799 (+126%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) New York Mets 61¢ 62¢ $1,250 $1,281 +$31 (+2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $1,245 $1,230 −$15 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $1,249 $1,226 −$23 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 43¢ 41¢ $974 $927 −$47 (-5%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ 56¢ $768 $775 +$7 (+1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Washington Mystics 54¢ 55¢ $735 $747 +$12 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 12 $716 +$1,220 +170%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 12 $0 +$1 +156%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers Jun 12 $0 $0 +98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +56%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +78%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +203%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 13.5 Jun 12 $4,278 −$4,278 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $156 −$312 -200%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,062 −$1,062 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $70 −$140 -200%
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $5 −$11 -200%
Spread: Athletics (-6.5) Jun 12 $3 −$5 -200%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $1,000 −$2,001 -200%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 12 $4 −$8 -200%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 12 $93 −$186 -200%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 14.5 Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 12 $2,101 −$2,101 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $292 −$584 -200%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty: O/U 166.5 Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 16.5 Jun 12 $123 −$123 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $3,119 −$3,119 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 12 $2 −$4 -200%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 12 $2,208 −$2,208 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $435 −$435 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,247 −$1,247 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2,566 −$2,566 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 12 $603 −$1,206 -200%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% +$37,540
other 2% −$527
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 0m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 41¢ $12 0m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 1m
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 20¢ $0 8m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 9m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 24¢ $0 12m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 22¢ $0 13m
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) BUY Washington Mystics 46¢ $24 17m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 21m
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 60¢ $2 23m
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $1 23m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $8 29m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $7 29m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 29m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 29m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 29m
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $46 31m
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 65¢ $27 32m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $755 38m
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $3 42m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 36¢ $1 42m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 45¢ $5 50m
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 45¢ $2 50m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 54m
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 70¢ $2 59m
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $2 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $7 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $6 1h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 39¢ $4 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 54¢ $332 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 469 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -27.7%
≤30d 469 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -27.7%
≤90d 469 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -27.7%
all 469 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 19% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3348.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.6% 19% -27.7%
10% -58.1% 17% -34.6%
15% ← realistic here -62.1% 15% -40.9%
20% -65.8% 12% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107,574.91 · official $107,421.34 (match) · 3500 history records