Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5266…aac8 sports 205 markets active 0h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$51 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%82W / 116L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$805now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$527
7 days−$2,553
14 days−$2,553
30 days−$2,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$248
crypto 8% $0
other 5% −$136
weather 3% −$16
world 2% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -52.5% -57.0% 25% 23% -41.6%
≤30d 135 -50.0% -54.7% 27% 25% -39.3%
≤90d 143 -48.2% -53.1% 29% 25% -33.9%
all 198 -8.4% -17.1% 41% 37% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 37% -9.3%
10% -25.0% 33% -18.0%
15% -32.3% 27% -25.9%
20% -38.9% 24% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$39 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$805
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses82 / 116
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions6
Markets (closed)198 / 205
History coverage170d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $263 $239 −$24 (-9%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 57¢ 68¢ $172 $206 +$34 (+19%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 64¢ $181 $194 +$13 (+7%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 62¢ 49¢ $187 $147 −$40 (-21%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $247 +$157 +63%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $158 +$42 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $233 +$67 +29%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 −$34 -56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 −$9 -15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 −$72 -67%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $27 −$25 -93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $57 +$42 +74%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $225 +$75 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 +$34 +52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $59 +$40 +68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $66 +$33 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $38 +$61 +160%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 +$18 +59%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $13 +$12 +89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $79 +$19 +24%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 +$47 +31%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $70 +$29 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $17 +$54 +312%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $46 +$15 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $59 +$29 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $77 −$50 -64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 14 $20 −$16 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 17? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
76ers vs. Raptors Jun 14 $21 +$29 +139%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 21? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 22? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Clippers vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 20? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 +$54 +134%
Warriors vs. Thunder Jun 14 $9 +$3 +30%
Celtics vs. Spurs Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Raptors vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Nets vs. Hawks Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Wizards vs. Magic Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Hawks vs. Raptors Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $36 19m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $21 19m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 19m
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $66 23m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $55 25m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $64 28m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $62 37m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $121 41m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $125 58m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $119 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $404 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $300 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $19 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $58 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $59 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $2 2h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 27¢ $26 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $33 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $21 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $70 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $140 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $4 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $15 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $8 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $15 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $5 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $11 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $20 2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 52¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $804.55 · official $782.05 · 718 history records