Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:18:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5263…ad57 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-13%) realized −$80 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$12
sports 22% +$7
crypto 15% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 39% -22.5%
≤30d 36 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 39% -22.5%
≤90d 36 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 39% -22.5%
all 36 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 39% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -22.5%
10% -25.6% 28% -29.9%
15% -32.8% 19% -36.7%
20% -39.4% 17% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 56¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +156%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -58%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 −$18 -71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 −$85 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $76 +$17 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 +$44 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$37 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$23 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 −$17 -36%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $37 +$8 +21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$6 -35%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 32m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 33m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 33m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 33m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 18h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 19h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $4 20h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 21h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 23h
Egypt leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $2 24h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 86¢ $2 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 39h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 39h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 40h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.11 (match) · 83 history records