Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x5262…ea0a sports 699 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%477W / 220L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95
7 days−$61
14 days−$74
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$42
other 45% −$16
world 1% +$22
crypto 1% +$6
politics 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -12.5% -20.8% 63% 58% -21.4%
≤30d 55 -10.8% -19.3% 65% 62% -18.1%
≤90d 296 -2.6% -11.9% 69% 68% -9.5%
all 697 -0.9% -10.4% 68% 68% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 68% -9.9%
10% -18.9% 66% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 48% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 21% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses477 / 220
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)697 / 699
History coverage128d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 697 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+43%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +48%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $27 +$9 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +17%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$2 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $24 +$12 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 +$6 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 +$6 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $13 +$6 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $13 +$5 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $13 +$5 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $7 −$6 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $13 +$5 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $21 +$2 +12%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 18 $13 +$3 +27%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$5 +39%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$3 +26%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $9 11h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 73¢ $5 12h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $5 14h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 17h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $5 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $19 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $21 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $21 20h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 65¢ $6 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $6 24h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $7 35h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $14 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 38h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $14 38h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $14 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $23 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $7 47h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $27 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $21 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $6 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $36 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 78¢ $6 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $9 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.60 · official $24.60 (match) · 1449 history records