Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5262…4dc0 crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$41 (-18%) realized −$45 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate32%29W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$23
14 days−$37
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$11
crypto 45% −$36
other 5% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -36.9% -42.9% 29% 20% -33.4%
≤30d 92 -30.1% -36.8% 32% 25% -28.7%
≤90d 92 -30.1% -36.8% 32% 25% -28.7%
all 92 -30.1% -36.8% 32% 25% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 25% -28.7%
10% -42.8% 16% -35.6%
15% -48.4% 14% -41.8%
20% -53.4% 11% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses29 / 63
Open positions5
Markets (closed)92 / 97
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -79%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -55%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -73%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 3¢ $1 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY No 2¢ $1 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 2¢ $1 14m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 81¢ $15 42m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 58m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.04 · official $4.04 (match) · 336 history records