Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x525e…ee0d
other · 45 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$178 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$172 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$86
Realized+$172
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 45
History coverage150d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 3 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$33
14 days−$17
30 days+$590
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+27%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-91%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Rafael Jodar 24¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$33 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $104 −$102 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$52 +103%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 25 $77 +$608 +789%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Apr 01 $20 −$7 -33%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 22 $50 +$29 +59%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $49 +$4 +8%
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? Mar 04 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Mar 01 $7 +$19 +257%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18? Feb 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 80 and 90 minutes Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address be between 90 and 100 minutes Feb 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on February 17? Feb 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on February 17? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 25 $23 +$61 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 18? Feb 19 $18 +$44 +245%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026 Feb 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $7,000-$7,100 in January? Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Feb 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026 Feb 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? Feb 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January? Feb 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January? Feb 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? Feb 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%? Feb 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 40.5 and 40.9 on February 6, 2 Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on February 6, 2 Feb 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2AM ET Feb 16 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Feb 16 $87 −$87 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in January? Feb 13 $24 +$66 +275%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 10 $35 +$43 +122%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at $6,900-$7,000 in January? Jan 31 $29 +$41 +138%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $100 +$52 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026? Jan 21 $17 +$52 +300%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $31 +$30 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 29% +$425
other 29% +$61
sports 12% −$99
politics 8% −$95
weather 8% −$71
crypto 6% +$1
economics 4% −$62
finance 4% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 3d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $8 4d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 4d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 4d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $60 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 29¢ $50 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Rafael Jodar 21¢ $54 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $100 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 73d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 74d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? SELL Yes 98¢ $79 82d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 95d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 96d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $53 101d
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $70 101d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 103d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $4 112d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $2 112d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $1 112d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $1 112d
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland BUY Finland 54¢ $18 112d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $1 112d
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 20 to SELL Yes 25¢ $4 112d
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 20 to BUY Yes 22¢ $6 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +71.0% +54.7% 100% 100% +54.7%
≤30d 4 +233.0% +201.3% 75% 75% +199.8%
≤90d 7 +122.5% +101.3% 57% 57% +156.5%
all 42 +2.9% -6.9% 33% 31% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 31% +0.8%
10% -15.8% 31% -8.8%
15% -24.0% 31% -17.7%
20% -31.4% 31% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.70 · official $85.70 (match) · 114 history records