Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T11:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5259…fc71
politics · 186 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$64 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$63 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses17 / 163
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)180 / 186
History coverage29d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day93.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 6 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$34
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 50¢ 66¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+31%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 41¢ 33¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 30¢ 25¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 13 $51 $0 -1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $56 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $23 $0 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $24 −$2 -6%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 07 $65 −$4 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 07 $39 −$2 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 07 $18 $0 -2%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 07 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $86 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jimmy Kimmel by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 05 $12 $0 +2%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $6 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 05 $9 $0 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 05 $56 −$4 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 05 $95 −$5 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $19 $0 -1%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 04 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 04 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 04 $16 $0 -2%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 04 $65 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 04 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $371 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $276 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$17
other 29% −$14
sports 13% −$2
tech 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$16
economics 2% −$9
world 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 0m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 10m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 52¢ $5 10m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 52¢ $5 11m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 12m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL No 63¢ $5 28m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL No 62¢ $5 29m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 63¢ $2 30m
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 30m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 52¢ $3 35m
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL No 38¢ $4 36m
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 63¢ $5 42m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 52¢ $0 44m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 52¢ $2 54m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 53¢ $4 55m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 47¢ $5 59m
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 53¢ $2 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 65¢ $5 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL No 65¢ $7 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 53¢ $3 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY No 64¢ $6 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL No 64¢ $3 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL No 54¢ $6 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 1h
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 30¢ $2 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 54¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.8% -11.1% 5% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 180 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 180 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 0% -10.4%
all 180 -3.4% -12.6% 9% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 0% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.43 · official $17.43 (match) · 3326 history records