Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x5258…534e sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$784 (+4%) realized +$753 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%200W / 207L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$5,211
other 4% +$71
crypto 1% −$33
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +50.6% +36.3% 55% 55% +48.2%
≤30d 113 +49.8% +35.5% 47% 47% +51.7%
≤90d 407 +24.3% +12.5% 49% 48% +24.7%
all 407 +24.3% +12.5% 49% 48% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 48% +24.7%
10% +1.7% 45% +12.7%
15% -8.1% 44% +1.8%
20% -17.1% 40% -8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$27 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.57 per $1 lost it wins $2.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$753
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses200 / 207
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage86d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 30¢ $0 $31 +$31 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $50 +$52 +105%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $35 +$65 +185%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $146 +$132 +90%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $220 +$176 +80%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $322 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $85 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $145 −$145 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $71 +$75 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $70 +$69 +98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 +$69 +96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $23 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$63 +158%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $52 +$47 +90%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $78 +$70 +90%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $44 +$65 +147%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $71 +$48 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$39 +71%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $39 +$60 +156%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$100 +99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $66 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $46 +$53 +115%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $13 +$86 +661%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $48 +$54 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $47 +$52 +111%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $53 +$46 +88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $70 +$69 +98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 +$30 +518%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $100 +$98 +98%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $44 +$55 +125%
Canada vs. Republic of Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $42 +$58 +138%
Hungary vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $44 +$55 +125%
Singapore vs. China PR: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $50 +$49 +98%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $50 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $17 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $18 20h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $19 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $277 44h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $146 46h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $396 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $220 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $322 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $61 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $85 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $0 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 26¢ $52 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $18 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $92 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $32 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.15 · official $32.68 · 1087 history records