Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5258…bc24 other 534 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%480W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$2,068now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$128
14 days−$24
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$215
sports 24% +$146
world 9% −$16
politics 8% −$9
economics 3% +$23
weather 3% +$20
crypto 1% +$3
tech 1% +$7
finance 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -1.8% -11.2% 96% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 438 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 496 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.7%
all 496 +0.0% -9.5% 97% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$44 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$2,068
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses480 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions38
Markets (closed)496 / 534
History coverage78d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 496 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? No 98¢ 99¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice (EZEMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election? No 100¢ 99¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 99¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Will Hezbollah win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 99¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 98¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? No 98¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? No 98¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 98¢ 97¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? No 98¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 97¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? No 96¢ 96¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $15 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $19 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $29 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $29 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $14 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +4%
Will three people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $58 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY No 96¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 98¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 96¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? BUY No 96¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 97¢ $58 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 98¢ $59 16h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $58 16h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $58 16h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $58 16h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 98¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $59 25h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $59 25h
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June BUY No 98¢ $49 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $58 25h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $58 25h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $59 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,067.65 · official $2,067.65 (match) · 1177 history records