Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5257…75d3 crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,940 (-17%) realized −$1,918 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%31W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,719
sports 6% −$386
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -27.5%
≤30d 80 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -27.5%
≤90d 80 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -27.5%
all 80 -3.9% -13.0% 39% 39% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 39% -27.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -34.5%
15% -28.9% 36% -40.8%
20% -35.9% 35% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$122 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$1,918
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses31 / 49
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage7d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 48¢ 40¢ $118 $96 −$22 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $123 +$100 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $118 −$114 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $129 +$72 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $122 +$48 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $133 +$89 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $131 +$80 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $119 −$113 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $81 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$150 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $138 −$132 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$198 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $116 −$110 -95%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $121 +$99 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $108 −$103 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $173 −$165 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$91 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $88 −$83 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $126 −$36 -29%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $325 −$320 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $137 +$101 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $135 +$123 +91%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $169 −$165 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $149 +$100 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$174 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $66 +$56 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $73 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $222 −$212 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$99 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $138 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $118 +$99 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $274 −$264 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $227 −$219 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$71 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $65 +$20 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $241 +$39 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $223 +$288 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$88 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $216 −$206 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $230 −$219 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $297 +$277 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $68 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $129 +$123 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $242 +$170 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $122 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $223 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $123 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $118 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $201 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $129 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $170 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $222 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $131 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $138 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $116 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $220 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 54¢ $121 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $108 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $140 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $129 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $88 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $89 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $126 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.20 · official $132.74 · 210 history records