Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5255…6e58 sports 468 markets active 3h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$777 (-3%) realized −$893 · open +$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%221W / 226L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,965now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days+$203
14 days+$223
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$19
sports 9% −$353
other 9% −$122
finance 3% −$28
politics 1% −$15
culture 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 36% -5.6%
≤30d 116 -5.9% -14.8% 56% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 335 -8.2% -17.0% 50% 36% -10.9%
all 447 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 35% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 35% -12.5%
10% -23.5% 28% -20.8%
15% -30.9% 21% -28.5%
20% -37.6% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$1,965
Realized−$893
Unrealized+$116
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses221 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions21
Markets (closed)447 / 468
History coverage118d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 71¢ 81¢ $304 $349 +$45 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 42¢ 55¢ $255 $327 +$72 (+28%)
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 77¢ 81¢ $278 $294 +$16 (+6%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $178 $199 +$21 (+12%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $152 $148 −$5 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $81 $92 +$12 (+14%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 75¢ 64¢ $75 $64 −$11 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $61 $55 −$6 (-10%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? No 61¢ 78¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+28%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+7%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $49 $32 −$16 (-33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? Yes 40¢ 24¢ $40 $25 −$16 (-39%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $18 $13 −$4 (-25%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 73¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $118 +$13 +11%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $79 −$19 -24%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $38 −$30 -79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $82 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $557 −$61 -11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $679 −$7 -1%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $237 −$6 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $195 +$12 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $84 +$7 +8%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $122 −$51 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $579 −$45 -8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $188 −$66 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $548 +$252 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $178 +$122 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $739 +$103 +14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -51%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $13 −$2 -12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +114%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $11 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -17%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$4 -21%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$5 -35%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$2 +23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $510 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $72 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 80¢ $36 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 77¢ $27 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 4h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 82¢ $131 4h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 4h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 59¢ $59 4h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 4h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $18 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $13 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 77¢ $0 5h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 5h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 87¢ $52 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 22h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 75¢ $38 24h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 74¢ $59 24h
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 25h
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 66¢ $26 25h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 61¢ $12 25h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY No 61¢ $24 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,965.16 · official $1,965.54 (match) · 2215 history records