Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5254…9cec other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$10
other 29% −$1
politics 19% +$3
crypto 8% +$1
economics 6% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.5% -4.6% 100% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 9 +6.5% -3.6% 44% 22% -7.9%
≤90d 11 +5.5% -4.5% 55% 18% -8.0%
all 55 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 5% -8.6%
10% -16.7% 4% -17.4%
15% -24.7% 4% -25.4%
20% -32.1% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.13 per $1 lost it wins $5.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage430d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $49 +$5 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 26 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $161 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $28 +$2 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $57 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $9 +$4 +42%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 05 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Nov 19 $10 $0 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $19 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 02 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $20 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15? Aug 10 $23 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? Aug 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 06 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jul 06 $23 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Jun 24 $22 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $35 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $8 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $67 6h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $7 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $36 22d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $43 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $80 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $23 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 44¢ $63 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $11 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $28 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $35 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $36 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $36 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $1 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $57 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $45 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $25 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records