Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5252…a7cd sports 957 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$617 (-3%) realized −$611 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%286W / 634L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Fees−$424est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$74
14 days−$139
30 days−$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$127
other 7% −$280
world 1% +$37
crypto 1% −$15
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -6.5% -15.4% 24% 24% -2.3%
≤30d 290 -16.6% -24.6% 20% 20% -13.5%
≤90d 920 -12.7% -21.0% 31% 30% -11.2%
all 920 -12.7% -21.0% 31% 30% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.0% 30% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 30% -19.7%
15% -35.5% 28% -27.5%
20% -41.8% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$611
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses286 / 634
Est. fees paid−$424
Open positions6
Markets (closed)920 / 957
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 920 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Korea Republic 35¢ 34¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Netherlands 29¢ 30¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 33¢ 34¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No $12 $5 −$7 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 211 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$2 -41%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $12 −$3 -25%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 +$25 +124%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 +$16 +226%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$32 +211%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 23 $10 +$98 +953%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $32 −$25 -78%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$21 +69%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 −$3 -29%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $25 −$12 -48%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +146%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $26 +$73 +285%
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $20 −$14 -66%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 −$9 -68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$5 -24%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$10 -68%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $12 −$2 -16%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$3 -29%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$33 +131%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $4 +$46 +1116%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $41 +$63 +156%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$26 +41%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $23 −$5 -21%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$12 -80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $31 +$80 +261%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 33¢ $26 18m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $31 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY $5 2h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 35¢ $51 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY 19¢ $36 2h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $1 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 19¢ $5 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 27¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $5 3h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada $3 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 16¢ $5 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No $2 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on BUY 18¢ $10 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 23h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) SELL Croatia 10¢ $2 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 28¢ $9 23h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Croatia 16¢ $4 23h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 36¢ $12 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 25h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $10 33h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $15 33h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $10 33h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.88 · official $190.66 · 3500 history records