Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5250…4cfa crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$139 (-6%) realized −$140 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%77W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$51
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$85
sports 11% −$62
politics 4% −$28
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 26 +10.2% -0.3% 27% 27% -18.8%
≤90d 77 +1.6% -8.1% 35% 34% -12.6%
all 204 -7.4% -16.2% 38% 37% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 37% -17.9%
10% -24.3% 34% -25.7%
15% -31.6% 32% -32.9%
20% -38.3% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses77 / 127
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)204 / 206
History coverage127d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 20 $11 +$28 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 20 $5 +$52 +973%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 20 $11 +$31 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 20 $5 +$24 +450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 20 $5 +$5 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 18 $10 +$8 +75%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? May 18 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 18 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $10 +$18 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $10 +$13 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 17 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 16 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 16 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 09 $10 +$18 +181%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026? May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by April 30, 2026 May 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? May 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $5 +$9 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Kraken vs. Golden Knights Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Sabres Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres Apr 17 $10 +$78 +785%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 0¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $6 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 42¢ $5 24d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $11 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 28d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 27¢ $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 24¢ $10 28d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.68 · official $40.68 (match) · 490 history records