Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x524f…319b crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$228 (-9%) realized −$414 · open +$186
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%27W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$185
14 days−$462
30 days−$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$23
crypto 20% +$3
sports 13% −$173
politics 5% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.7% -47.3% 0% 0% -46.4%
≤30d 25 -16.4% -24.3% 48% 40% -36.9%
≤90d 25 -16.4% -24.3% 48% 40% -36.9%
all 48 -10.3% -18.9% 56% 44% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 44% -30.3%
10% -26.6% 33% -37.0%
15% -33.7% 25% -43.0%
20% -40.2% 17% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$32 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$1,165
Realized−$414
Unrealized+$186
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses27 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)48 / 54
History coverage279d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 60¢ $274 $488 +$214 (+78%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 46¢ $309 $406 +$98 (+32%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $275 $155 −$120 (-44%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $148 −$66 -44%
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $305 −$119 -39%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $210 −$183 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$4 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$14 +102%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $37 +$23 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 −$20 -20%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 6? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist P Jan 24 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 21? Nov 23 $27 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 27? Oct 28 $13 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 20? Oct 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Solana Up or Down on October 20? Oct 20 $30 −$26 -89%
Solana Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET Oct 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Oct 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5) Oct 20 $26 −$11 -41%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Oct 20 $18 +$30 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 16 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Oct 16 $44 +$5 +12%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Oct 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12PM ET Oct 15 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Oct 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 14? Oct 15 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 14? Oct 15 $20 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 26? Oct 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on September 26? Oct 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Sep 26 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 25? Sep 26 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Sep 23 $3 −$1 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 1h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $54 1h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Germany reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 8¢ $5 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 17¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 87¢ $64 11d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 85¢ $145 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $9 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,164.90 · official $1,164.90 (match) · 180 history records