Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x524d…4495 other 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,111 (-15%) realized −$720 · open −$391
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$437per market
Trades / day46.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$4,358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-80.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -78.5% -80.6% 8% 8% -41.9%
≤30d 12 -78.5% -80.6% 8% 8% -41.9%
≤90d 12 -78.5% -80.6% 8% 8% -41.9%
all 12 -78.5% -80.6% 8% 8% -41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -80.6% 8% -41.9%
10% ← realistic here -82.4% 8% -47.5%
15% -84.1% 8% -52.6%
20% -85.7% 8% -57.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$604 vs −$142 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4,358
Realized−$720
Unrealized−$391
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Open positions25
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$437
Trades / day46.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 49¢ 48¢ $2,156 $2,138 −$19 (-1%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? No 50¢ 60¢ $690 $839 +$149 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $558 $490 −$68 (-12%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 17¢ $35 $156 +$121 (+342%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $317 $133 −$185 (-58%)
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? No 39¢ 54¢ $91 $128 +$37 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $112 $115 +$3 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? No 24¢ 20¢ $113 $97 −$17 (-15%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $35 $90 +$54 (+154%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $82 $78 −$4 (-5%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $35 $40 +$5 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $92 $18 −$73 (-80%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $35 $15 −$21 (-58%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-77%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $3 −$32 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $1 −$34 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 26 $228 −$20 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $909 +$604 +66%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 26 $593 −$568 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $745 −$714 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $53 12m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $86 27m
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 1, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $93 50m
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $704 50m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $118 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $32 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $33 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $119 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $165 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $32 15h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $60 15h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $2,015 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL Yes 2¢ $208 17h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 18h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,357.64 · official $4,358.35 (match) · 94 history records