Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x524d…d12b
other · 77 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$451 +32%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$456 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized+$456
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage475d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 3 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$5
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 9¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Zverev 24¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $20 −$6 -31%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $17 −$8 -47%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $18 +$14 +74%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +84%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 07 $5 +$10 +194%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 06 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Isack Hadjar get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $9 −$9 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverev Oct 26 $22 −$19 -86%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix pole? Oct 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Joe Biden say "Jill" 5+ times during his May 8 interview? Jul 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joe Biden say "Zelenskyy" during his May 8 interview? Jul 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Jul 07 $147 −$103 -70%
Will Joe Biden say "Trump" 5+ times during his May 8 interview? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Jul 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Jul 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in March? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Monaco GP pole? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joe Biden say "Democracy" 2+ times during his May 8 interview? Jul 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Jul 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Joe Biden say "Francis" during his May 8 interview? Jul 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Jul 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2025 Italian Grand Prix? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Monaco Grand Prix? Jul 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top Champions League scorer? Jul 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Jul 07 $3 −$3 -100%
No Data Reported in 2025? Jul 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 08 $2 +$679 +41133%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -82%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? Mar 10 $100 −$12 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 39% +$553
politics 29% −$43
crypto 21% −$21
world 6% +$12
sports 4% −$39
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 47m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 47m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 48m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 48m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 48m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 48m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 49m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 52m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 52m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 53m
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 53m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 54m
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $14 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 5¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.3% +5.2% 43% 43% -15.2%
≤30d 13 -37.4% -43.3% 23% 23% -41.8%
≤90d 16 -49.1% -54.0% 19% 19% -51.2%
all 74 -30.5% -37.1% 14% 12% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 12% -22.3%
10% -43.1% 8% -29.7%
15% -48.6% 8% -36.5%
20% -53.7% 8% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.68 · official $8.68 (match) · 569 history records