Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
52 0x5248…61a9 politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 59L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 66 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage628d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $58 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $58 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 24 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Nov 24 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bryce Harper win the 2025 NL MVP? Nov 24 $56 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Worthy win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Notre Dame win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Binance list $DEGEN in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Argentina dollarize in 2024? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Jan 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Buccaneers win the NFC Championship? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
RFK Jr & Cheryl Hines divorce in 2024? Jan 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jaylen Brown lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Lily Phillips has sex with between 750-999 men in a day? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Joel Embiid lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $0 $0 -5%
Will Louisville win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jack Chambers be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Nov 12 $0 $0 -2%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? Nov 12 $0 $0 -1%
3 Trump vs. Harris debates before election? Nov 12 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 13h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 8d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 30d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $57 37d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $57 37d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 61d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 61d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $58 64d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $58 64d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $58 79d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $58 80d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 87d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 87d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 87d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $58 92d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $58 92d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $58 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $58 95d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 98d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 98d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $58 103d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $58 103d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 107d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 111d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 113d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 130d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $55 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records