Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x5248…0a8e sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$271 (+89%) realized +$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +63% what you keep after slip
Net edge+63%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$179
other 33% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+69.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +87.6% +69.7% 100% 100% +69.7%
≤30d 3 +87.6% +69.7% 100% 100% +69.7%
≤90d 3 +87.6% +69.7% 100% 100% +69.7%
all 3 +87.6% +69.7% 100% 100% +69.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.7% 100% +69.7%
10% +53.5% 100% +53.5%
15% +38.6% 100% +38.6%
20% +25.0% 100% +25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $102 +$102 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $188 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records