Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5247…ece7 sports 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-6%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$49
7 days−$43
14 days−$134
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$165
other 13% −$73
world 9% −$122
crypto 4% −$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +7.9% -2.4% 30% 30% -12.0%
≤30d 53 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 32% -17.2%
≤90d 54 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 33% -13.5%
all 54 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 33% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 33% -13.5%
10% -18.7% 33% -21.8%
15% -26.5% 31% -29.3%
20% -33.7% 30% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$42 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions4
Markets (closed)54 / 61
History coverage31d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $73 −$72 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$85 +567%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $93 +$107 +114%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$60 +150%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $97 −$74 -76%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $45 +$55 +122%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $87 +$113 +129%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $99 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $83 −$81 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $10 +$65 +633%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$105 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $23 +$27 +121%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $40 +$60 +150%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 +$143 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $14 +$86 +596%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 28 $135 −$134 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) May 23 $94 +$106 +113%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $56 +$28 +50%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 22 $72 +$46 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $59 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $54 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $15 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $4 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $21 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $0 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $32 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 25h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $50 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 19¢ $20 26h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 37h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 15¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $93 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $28 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 28¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $19 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $30 3d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.82 · official $175.82 (match) · 152 history records