Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
52 0x5246…cb03 crypto 908 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$237 (+3%) realized +$125 · open +$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%464W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day73.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$144
14 days+$92
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$162
sports 9% +$82
other 8% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +28.4% +16.2% 38% 36% +8.3%
≤30d 462 -4.1% -13.2% 51% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 902 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 49% -6.9%
all 902 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 49% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 49% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 48% -15.8%
15% -31.9% 38% -23.9%
20% -38.5% 37% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$841
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses464 / 438
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions6
Markets (closed)902 / 908
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day73.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 902 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 68¢ $380 $500 +$120 (+32%)
Will Brazil finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $209 $203 −$6 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $70 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Over 16¢ 16¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Over 7¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $32 +$21 +65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $27 +$26 +96%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $18 +$25 +133%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 +$11 +30%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 +$58 +1123%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$55 +78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $68 −$2 -4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $36 +$17 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $2 +$13 +664%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$33 +728%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $19 +$31 +163%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 +$25 +242%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$19 +63%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $53 +$27 +50%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $4 +$5 +108%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$11 +294%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 87¢ $52 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 66¢ $28 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 43¢ $43 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 66¢ $24 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 66¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $36 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $16 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $14 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $25 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $18 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $27 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 90¢ $14 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 80¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $126 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.28 · official $842.58 (match) · 3500 history records