Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x5245…d550
finance · 30 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$493 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$518 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$280
Realized+$518
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)18 / 30
History coverage114d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 12 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 33¢ 82¢ $50 $124 +$74 (+148%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $165 $72 −$93 (-56%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 06 $30 −$29 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 06 $25 −$24 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 06 $50 −$49 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 06 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 06 $223 +$360 +162%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Mar 08 $289 +$346 +120%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $30 +$896 +2988%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 75% −$227
sports 11% −$19
world 9% +$744
other 4% −$6
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $25 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY Yes 10¢ $25 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? BUY Yes 45¢ $60 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? BUY Yes 28¢ $50 68d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 68d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? BUY Yes 34¢ $100 91d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 94d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 96d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 102d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? BUY Yes 38¢ $100 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -62.6% -66.2% 14% 14% +15.8%
all 18 +43.4% +29.7% 17% 17% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.7% 17% +2.8%
10% +17.3% 17% -7.0%
15% +6.0% 17% -16.0%
20% -4.4% 17% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.18 · official $280.18 (match) · 47 history records