Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5245…0d45 crypto 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$568 (-1%) realized −$571 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%292W / 99L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days+$80
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$312
other 11% −$1,087
sports 1% +$58
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 42% -6.4%
≤30d 93 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 42% -7.3%
≤90d 127 +2.9% -6.9% 54% 39% -7.3%
all 391 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 34% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 34% -10.7%
10% -18.5% 16% -19.2%
15% -26.3% 12% -27.0%
20% -33.6% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$45 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized−$571
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses292 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)391 / 393
History coverage354d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 391 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $209 $210 +$2 (+1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 90¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 30 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $30 −$11 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$59 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$45 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$22 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$22 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$15 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.83 · official $311.83 (match) · 2259 history records