Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:59:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x5245…8908 other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate73%22W / 8L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$55
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$129
other 47% −$406
crypto 6% +$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +7.8% -2.4% 73% 55% -10.4%
≤30d 30 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 50% -10.0%
≤90d 30 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 50% -10.0%
all 30 +4.9% -5.1% 73% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 50% -10.0%
10% -14.2% 30% -18.6%
15% -22.5% 20% -26.5%
20% -30.1% 17% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$96 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses22 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage9d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $42 −$2 -5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $32 +$13 +40%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$10 +59%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $639 +$55 +9%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $594 +$43 +7%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $561 +$35 +6%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $574 −$14 -2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $489 +$84 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $424 +$65 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $66 −$65 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 Jun 21 $57 +$30 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $29 +$27 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $55 −$26 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $757 −$478 -63%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $224 −$171 -76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $364 +$244 +67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $256 +$31 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $107 +$31 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $199 +$8 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $127 +$5 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$6 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 +$9 +9%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -41%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY 65¢ $40 2m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 75¢ $40 4m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $42 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $32 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $26 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $26 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 61¢ $16 45h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $694 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $639 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $168 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $426 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $561 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 94¢ $561 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $574 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $489 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $489 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $424 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $66 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY 12¢ $21 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 SELL 99¢ $86 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score AND Will Spain win on 2026 BUY 64¢ $57 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $55 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $39.58 · 75 history records