Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5242…7aa6 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 717d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$8,707 (-29%) realized −$6,881 · open −$555
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%9W / 25L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$824per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,814
7 days+$1,814
14 days+$1,814
30 days+$1,814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$1,604
other 37% −$3,297
politics 15% −$1,962
world 7% −$1,227
sports 4% +$653
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 40% 40% +26.8%
≤30d 5 +49.2% +35.0% 40% 40% +26.8%
≤90d 11 -22.5% -29.9% 27% 18% -16.5%
all 34 -27.0% -34.0% 26% 18% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 18% -31.3%
10% -40.3% 15% -37.9%
15% -46.1% 12% -43.9%
20% -51.4% 12% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$1,276) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,151 vs −$690 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

717d coverage
Net worth$181
Realized−$6,881
Unrealized−$555
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses9 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage717d
Avg bet$824
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 17¢ $201 $180 −$21 (-11%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $535 $1 −$534 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $376 +$1,372 +365%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,631 +$2,960 +182%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,339 −$2,339 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3? Apr 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Apr 28 $1,998 −$1,998 -100%
Will Portugal win? Apr 28 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $654 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 21 $244 −$232 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $165 −$162 -98%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 13 $289 −$124 -43%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $1,276 −$1,079 -84%
Will gmoney win the Synthetix trading competition? Feb 28 $4,209 −$4,209 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 28 $824 −$707 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $2,000 +$1,641 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Nov 29 $2,078 −$2,036 -98%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 13 $1,357 −$894 -66%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025? Nov 13 $666 −$514 -77%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025? Nov 13 $311 −$230 -74%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Nov 13 $100 −$76 -76%
Netherlands vs. Turkey - Who will advance? Nov 05 $718 −$718 -100%
Will Trump be president by September 1? Nov 05 $308 −$308 -100%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jul 18 $2,203 −$985 -45%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jul 18 $445 −$48 -11%
Rabby airdrop by September 30? Jul 18 $375 +$66 +18%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 12 $883 +$81 +9%
Will the match be a draw? Jul 06 $473 −$35 -7%
Will Turkey win? Jul 06 $300 −$20 -7%
Will France win? Jul 06 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Turkey win the 2024 Euros? Jul 04 $345 +$114 +33%
Will Turkey win? Jul 02 $1,168 +$4,094 +350%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jul 02 $319 +$27 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $192 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $201 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $333 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,748 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $376 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $545 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,024 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 9¢ $96 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $82 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,315 2d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $49 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $194 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $131 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $34 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,460 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $4 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $865 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $71 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $389 13d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $654 47d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13? SELL No 0¢ $3 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 13? BUY No 23¢ $165 93d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? SELL Yes 11¢ $165 93d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? BUY Yes 20¢ $289 93d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 1¢ $198 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 3¢ $300 106d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.19 · official $181.19 (match) · 138 history records