Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x523b…8478
crypto · 70 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$77 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$77 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage34d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$13
14 days−$14
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $240 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $180 −$7 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $120 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $120 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $80 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 06 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $120 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 06 $80 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $80 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $80 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $120 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 28 $30 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $60 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $60 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 28 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $60 −$9 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 28 $60 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $60 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 28 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $60 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 28 $60 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 26 $60 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 26 $60 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 26 $90 −$13 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 26 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 24 $90 −$12 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 24 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $30 +$5 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $29 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 61 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 20% -11.1%
≤90d 70 -0.6% -10.0% 34% 17% -11.2%
all 70 -0.6% -10.0% 34% 17% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 17% -11.2%
10% -18.6% 0% -19.7%
15% -26.5% 0% -27.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 531 history records