Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5238…1786 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$10 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$43
sports 44% −$96
crypto 4% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 40% -11.8%
≤30d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 40% -11.8%
≤90d 10 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 40% -11.8%
all 10 -5.5% -14.5% 60% 40% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 40% -11.8%
10% -22.7% 30% -20.2%
15% -30.2% 30% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 30% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$49 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $182 +$128 +70%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$6 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$17 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$90 -89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $122 −$56 -46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -72%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $113 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $154 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $182 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $41 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $67 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $117 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 30¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 87¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 14¢ $9 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 85¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 18¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 20¢ $44 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.12 · official $36.88 · 32 history records