trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $1,855 | $1,866 | +$11 (+1%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 94¢ | $260 | $305 | +$45 (+17%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 47¢ | 60¢ | $94 | $119 | +$25 (+27%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $76 | $76 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 14¢ | 13¢ | $28 | $26 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 60¢ | 60¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? | Jun 12 | $16 | +$4 | +28% |
| Will "Bully - Kanye West" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week o | Apr 02 | $100 | −$95 | -95% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +16.0% | +4.9% | 100% | 50% | +13.1% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +16.0% | +4.9% | 100% | 50% | +13.1% |
| ≤90d | 3 | -20.9% | -28.5% | 67% | 33% | -79.0% |
| all | 3 | -20.9% | -28.5% | 67% | 33% | -79.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.5% | 33% | -79.0% |
| 10% | -35.3% | 33% | -81.0% |
| 15% | -41.6% | 0% | -82.8% |
| 20% | -47.3% | 0% | -84.5% |