Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5234…9422 crypto 632 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate74%465W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% −$36
sports 24% +$25
other 17% −$52
weather 14% +$14
world 7% +$11
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$5
economics 0% +$1
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +13.8% +3.0% 94% 59% +3.2%
≤30d 17 +13.8% +3.0% 94% 59% +3.2%
≤90d 330 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 45% -14.8%
all 628 -1.8% -11.2% 74% 49% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -10.7%
10% -19.7% 31% -19.2%
15% -27.4% 22% -27.0%
20% -34.5% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses465 / 163
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)628 / 632
History coverage115d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 628 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? No 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Iran strike Azerbaijan by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13? Jun 14 $8 +$3 +45%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$3 +25%
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? Apr 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between Apr 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12? Apr 12 $11 +$2 +17%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? Apr 12 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 11? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 10? Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Kings Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ōita Trinita vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11? Apr 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11? Apr 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $15 +$1 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 11? Apr 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 11? Apr 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 10? Apr 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C or higher on April 10? Apr 11 $10 $0 +4%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 10? Apr 10 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10? Apr 10 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 9? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Predators vs. Utah: O/U 5.5 Apr 10 $1 $0 +15%
Spread: Stars (-1.5) Apr 10 $1 +$1 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 72¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 80¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 34h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan strike Iran by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 62d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 70¢ $12 65d
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between SELL No 96¢ $6 65d
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between SELL No 99¢ $0 65d
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between SELL No 99¢ $6 65d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $13 65d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12? SELL No 100¢ $13 65d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 12? BUY No 85¢ $11 65d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? SELL No 97¢ $11 65d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13? BUY No 68¢ $8 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? SELL No 57¢ $8 65d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13? BUY No 58¢ $8 65d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 65d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A BUY No $1 66d
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A BUY No $1 66d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11? BUY No 41¢ $2 66d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 82¢ $5 66d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 66d
Ōita Trinita vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2 66d
Will Ōita Trinita vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 66d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 11? BUY No 81¢ $10 66d
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 66d
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.53 · official $19.53 (match) · 1437 history records