Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5232…8300 crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 649d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate92%118W / 10L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$43
crypto 39% +$14
other 0% −$16
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$3
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 26 +1.6% -8.0% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 128 +1.4% -8.3% 92% 18% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 18% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 6% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

649d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses118 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage649d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? Jun 24 $115 +$1 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 22 $6 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? Jun 22 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? May 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? May 23 $155 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 21 $159 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $162 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7? Apr 08 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $172 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? Apr 02 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $173 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 12? Mar 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 12 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $170 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $168 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $167 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 08 $163 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 5? Feb 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 3? Feb 05 $166 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in January? Feb 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 01 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $165 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $4 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $119 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $106 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $112 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $150 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $155 34d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $159 47d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $6 51d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 76¢ $5 51d
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May? BUY No 99¢ $4 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $162 58d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $162 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $171 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $169 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $165 74d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $6 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $167 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $169 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $172 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $163 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $166 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $168 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $165 93d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 94d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $4 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $166 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $173 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.97 · official $120.97 (match) · 345 history records