Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x522f…1342 politics 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,309 (+1%) realized +$1,309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate21%35W / 130L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$1,362per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$20
14 days−$160
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$80
other 39% −$407
sports 13% +$1,853
world 3% −$89
culture 2% −$5
tech 2% −$2
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 -8.1% -16.8% 10% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 107 -11.3% -19.8% 8% 4% -9.1%
all 165 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 9% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 9% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 8% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 7% -25.7%
20% -33.3% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,709) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$8 · ×8.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$235
Realized+$1,309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses35 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,362
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $235 $235 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $299 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $605 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $2,259 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,392 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $5,727 −$6 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $773 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,945 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,255 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,634 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $11,592 −$12 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $509 −$1 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,907 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $617 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $618 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,652 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $5,915 −$7 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $275 $0 -0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 02 $65 +$48 +73%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $167 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,132 −$4 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $311 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $339 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $2,650 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,685 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1,138 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,281 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $296 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $303 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,103 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $699 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,270 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 49m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $299 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $299 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $213 5h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $213 6h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $588 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $589 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $604 30h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $605 31h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $517 47h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $517 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $590 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $591 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $599 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $600 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $408 3d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $409 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $397 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $397 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $516 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $516 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $470 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $471 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $455 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $456 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $530 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $531 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $544 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $545 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $477 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.81 · official $234.81 (match) · 614 history records