Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:32:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x522d…d4d8 crypto 630 markets active 5d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$493 (-3%) realized −$493 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%325W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$217
14 days−$254
30 days−$378
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 42% -56.5%
≤30d 97 -14.5% -22.6% 39% 39% -51.3%
≤90d 630 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 50% -14.5%
all 630 -7.7% -16.5% 52% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 50% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 47% -22.7%
15% -31.8% 41% -30.2%
20% -38.5% 36% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses325 / 305
Open positions0
Markets (closed)630 / 630
History coverage50d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 630 Trades
no open positions (234 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $34 −$33 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $28 +$20 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $133 −$81 -61%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$13 -92%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$13 +99%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -88%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +88%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -77%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $14 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $18 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $14 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $34 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $51 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $51 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2540 history records