Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x522c…174a other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-0%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$13
politics 30% −$9
sports 9% −$35
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 90 -3.5% -12.7% 3% 2% -9.7%
all 108 -1.4% -10.8% 7% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 6% -9.8%
10% -19.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -27.1% 6% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×8.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage118d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $156 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $182 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $396 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $178 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $185 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $160 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $377 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $383 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $230 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $434 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $221 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $226 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $210 $0 +0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $427 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $414 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $222 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 8h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 40h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 43h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 43h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 9d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 12d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 23d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $156 29d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $156 29d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $173 30d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $173 30d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $182 30d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $182 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 30d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 31d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 31d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $169 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $169 33d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $178 33d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $178 33d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 33d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $187 33d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 34d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records