Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x522c…603e sports 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-4%) realized −$39 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%108W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$34
other 26% −$17
world 18% −$18
politics 2% +$3
tech 1% +$6
finance 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 37% -12.0%
≤30d 128 -9.4% -18.1% 41% 38% -12.0%
≤90d 239 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 44% -13.5%
all 239 -6.9% -15.7% 45% 44% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 44% -13.5%
10% -23.8% 43% -21.7%
15% -31.2% 39% -29.3%
20% -37.9% 34% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses108 / 131
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions26
Markets (closed)239 / 265
History coverage66d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 78¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 25¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+61%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 67¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 29¢ 30¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 78¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 58¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? Yes 12¢ $7 $5 −$3 (-37%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 74¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes $5 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 82¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Yes 63¢ 67¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $8 −$5 -67%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$2 -19%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $1 $0 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -52%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +52%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4 +$6 +138%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +62%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +124%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $6 $0 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $29 −$6 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $17 −$2 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $7 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$6 -75%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$3 -47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $8 +$2 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -10%
England vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $6 +$3 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $6 −$4 -61%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $6 −$1 -19%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2 $0 -3%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 03 $3 $0 -5%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 03 $3 $0 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $3 $0 -4%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $5 +$2 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 03 $3 $0 -6%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $6 −$3 -46%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 03 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 56m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No $1 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 5h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 66¢ $3 6h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $0 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 26? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes $1 7h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 28¢ $3 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL No $0 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.74 · official $90.70 · 771 history records