Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x522b…275e other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-18%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$76
sports 4% +$13
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.8% -27.4% 33% 33% -16.7%
≤30d 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -31.1%
≤90d 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -31.1%
all 7 -31.2% -37.8% 29% 29% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.8% 29% -31.1%
10% -43.7% 29% -37.7%
15% -49.2% 29% -43.7%
20% -54.1% 14% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$26 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage8d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$12 -24%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$16 -65%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +122%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 53¢ $38 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $23 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records