Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5220…acf5 other 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+0%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 101L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$13
politics 31% −$10
sports 9% +$65
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +2.4% -7.3% 8% 7% -9.3%
all 116 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 9% -9.4%
10% -16.7% 7% -18.0%
15% -24.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 101
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage117d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $495 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $209 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $334 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $269 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $66 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $579 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $221 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $353 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $374 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $221 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $354 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $446 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $461 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $347 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $136 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $463 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $360 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $153 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $160 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $136 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $131 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $39 29h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $39 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 9d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $237 23d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $237 28d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $269 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $228 31d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 33d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 35d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 35d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 353 history records