Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:56:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x521f…463f sports 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,402 (-40%) realized −$1,425 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%24W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,363
7 days−$1,368
14 days−$1,364
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1,252
sports 23% −$133
world 11% −$30
politics 2% +$10
tech 1% −$5
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -48.5% -53.4% 23% 19% -88.7%
≤30d 39 -38.3% -44.2% 31% 23% -69.7%
≤90d 58 -27.6% -34.5% 41% 36% -61.8%
all 58 -27.6% -34.5% 41% 36% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 36% -61.8%
10% -40.8% 26% -65.4%
15% -46.5% 17% -68.8%
20% -51.8% 16% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$47 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$807
Realized−$1,425
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses24 / 34
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions27
Markets (closed)58 / 85
History coverage71d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 17¢ 18¢ $476 $490 +$14 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 86¢ $52 $64 +$11 (+21%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? No 86¢ 84¢ $34 $34 −$1 (-2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 50¢ 48¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-5%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? No 69¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? No 55¢ 55¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 39¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 62¢ 62¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Morocco leading at halftime? No 37¢ 36¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $31 −$11 -35%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $36 +$4 +10%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 $0 -1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $12 +$8 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 +$6 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $12 +$14 +114%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $415 −$405 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $9 −$8 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$7 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $15 +$10 +62%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 +$15 +140%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $67 −$66 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $768 −$768 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 18 $12 −$5 -39%
Haiti elections delayed again? Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$3 -44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $14 +$7 +50%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 07 $21 −$8 -39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 03 $9 −$4 -41%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $219 −$47 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $99 −$30 -31%
XMAQUINA FDV above $500M one day after launch? May 28 $121 +$29 +24%
XMAQUINA FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 28 $5 +$1 +20%
XMAQUINA FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 27 $24 −$18 -75%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 19 $14 −$5 -37%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $10 +$8 +84%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 15 $20 −$9 -43%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $25 +$3 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $21 +$6 +27%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $21 +$3 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 24 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 24 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $44 +$13 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $11 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $9 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 19¢ $4 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $11 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 86¢ $35 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $8 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 39¢ $8 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY No 37¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $25 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $0 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $1 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $85 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 17¢ $16 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.37 · official $807.37 (match) · 192 history records