Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x521e…0d98 crypto 468 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$45 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%177W / 285L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days−$0
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$136
other 4% −$17
sports 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +29.5% +17.2% 32% 32% +5.2%
≤30d 58 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 33% -24.5%
≤90d 462 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 36% -12.5%
all 462 -4.5% -13.6% 38% 36% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 36% -12.5%
10% -21.9% 33% -20.9%
15% -29.4% 29% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 27% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses177 / 285
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)462 / 468
History coverage82d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 462 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 20¢ 2¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$25 +479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$17 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$9 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$4 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$31 +728%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$8 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 26 $14 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $8 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $19 +$13 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 26 $16 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $28 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 24m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $8.51 · 1966 history records