Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x521c…f4aa sports 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$356 (-1%) realized −$385 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%123W / 131L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$932now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$343
7 days+$145
14 days−$752
30 days−$5,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$792
other 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 55% -5.8%
≤30d 68 -24.5% -31.7% 40% 40% -32.1%
≤90d 242 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 45% -11.2%
all 254 -4.8% -13.9% 48% 48% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 48% -10.9%
10% -22.1% 48% -19.4%
15% -29.6% 48% -27.2%
20% -36.5% 47% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$200 vs −$194 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$932
Realized−$385
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses123 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions3
Markets (closed)254 / 257
History coverage98d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Alcaraz 49¢ 54¢ $375 $409 +$34 (+9%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 48¢ 48¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ 40¢ $228 $225 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $455 +$335 +74%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $302 −$300 -99%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $304 +$222 +73%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $232 −$228 -98%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $232 +$275 +119%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $305 +$334 +109%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $232 +$286 +124%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 10 $457 −$450 -98%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $455 +$271 +60%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $231 −$228 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 08 $303 −$300 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $455 +$282 +62%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $103 +$98 +96%
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 06 $609 −$600 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $152 −$150 -99%
Birmingham: Jacob Fearnley vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 02 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $304 +$205 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $306 +$484 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi May 31 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo May 31 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $303 +$173 +57%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $152 +$160 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $537 −$528 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Naomi Osaka May 30 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 28 $304 −$300 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Adam Walton May 28 $608 +$524 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva May 28 $1,065 −$1,050 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $153 +$222 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $153 +$222 +146%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $456 +$362 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $304 +$213 +70%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks May 27 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $304 +$188 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 26 $397 −$396 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $152 +$174 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Francisco Comesana May 26 $453 −$450 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $306 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Elsa Jacquemot May 26 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $456 −$450 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Emiliana Arango May 24 $457 +$426 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 24 $152 −$150 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz May 24 $457 −$450 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Tomas Machac vs Zizou Bergs May 24 $304 +$196 +65%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $456 +$307 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Dellien vs Valentin Royer May 24 $454 −$450 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 24 $306 −$300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $26 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $24 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 48¢ $253 1h
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ $232 1h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $6 28h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $9 28h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $3 29h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $11 33h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $4 34h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $32 36h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $66 38h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $5 38h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $31 38h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $7 39h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $13 39h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $1 39h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $272 39h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Joao Fonseca 69¢ $231 39h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 57¢ $368 40h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 57¢ $304 42h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 60¢ $304 46h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 40¢ $232 2d
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Katarzyna Kawa 47¢ $305 5d
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 45¢ $232 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 49¢ $457 6d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Robin Montgomery 44¢ $232 7d
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Nikola Bartunkova 57¢ $231 8d
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tallon Griekspoor 62¢ $455 8d
Stuttgart Open: Gauthier Onclin vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 62¢ $303 8d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane BUY Nuno Borges 61¢ $455 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $931.52 · official $931.52 (match) · 781 history records