Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
52 0x5219…38f5 weather 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 586d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+0%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate76%171W / 53L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$2
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$26
crypto 31% +$24
sports 2% −$6
culture 1% −$8
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$7
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.0% -11.3% 77% 8% -9.7%
≤30d 69 +3.8% -6.1% 91% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 126 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 2% -9.2%
all 224 +0.6% -9.0% 76% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.7% 1% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

586d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses171 / 53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)224 / 225
History coverage586d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $174 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 −$12 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +18%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $127 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $179 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 9? Jun 10 $175 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 9? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $108 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $161 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $133 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $31 −$14 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $165 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $165 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $161 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 1? Jun 02 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $83 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $157 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $156 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $155 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 29? May 29 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $152 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on May 28? May 29 $152 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $151 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 28? May 28 $165 −$14 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $163 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ma May 28 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 27? May 27 $73 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $177 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $35 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $20 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $12 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $48 42h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $25 42h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $122 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $31 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $18 43h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 95¢ $22 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL No 96¢ $8 46h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $20 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $33 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $9 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $19 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $39 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.87 · official $175.87 (match) · 669 history records