Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x5219…a15b other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$94 (+1%) realized −$268 · open +$362
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$516per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$320
other 27% +$685
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +22.8% +11.1% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +22.8% +11.1% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +22.8% +11.1% 38% 38% -9.5%
all 13 +22.8% +11.1% 38% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.1% 38% -9.5%
10% +0.5% 23% -18.1%
15% -9.2% 23% -26.0%
20% -18.1% 23% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$143 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,832
Realized−$268
Unrealized+$362
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$516
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 63¢ 78¢ $1,470 $1,832 +$362 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,328 +$194 +15%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $20 +$91 +442%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $2,764 +$359 +13%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $82 −$80 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $888 −$888 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 29 $30 +$164 +550%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $448 +$341 +76%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $75 −$73 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 63¢ $1,486 45m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 43¢ $153 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $82 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $314 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $595 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 54¢ $968 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 71¢ $1,955 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,013 5h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $2,017 5h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $75 27h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $30 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $447 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 30h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $888 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,831.67 · official $1,855.00 · 29 history records