Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5217…8201 world 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$375 (+21%) realized +$315 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate56%99W / 79L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$10
14 days+$59
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$176
other 23% −$20
politics 10% −$26
crypto 6% +$58
sports 2% +$18
culture 2% −$19
economics 1% −$6
tech 0% +$24
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.6% -0.8% 65% 35% +9.7%
≤30d 86 +16.6% +5.5% 56% 30% +11.3%
≤90d 175 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 30% +5.0%
all 178 +3.1% -6.7% 56% 29% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 29% +1.0%
10% -15.6% 25% -8.7%
15% -23.8% 20% -17.5%
20% -31.3% 17% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$368
Realized+$315
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses99 / 79
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions69
Markets (closed)178 / 247
History coverage95d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 46¢ 100¢ $61 $134 +$73 (+119%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 71¢ 88¢ $47 $58 +$11 (+24%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+185%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 42¢ 28¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-34%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 73¢ 99¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+36%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 62¢ 82¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes 39¢ 23¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 81¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 12¢ 31¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 67¢ 50¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 53¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Trump post "Crime" on Truth Social this week? Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6 +$21 +353%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $4 −$2 -56%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $2 $0 -18%
Spread: Bahrain (-1.5) Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $3 +$1 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $94 +$54 +58%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 02 $1 +$1 +138%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4 −$2 -39%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$6 +97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18 −$8 -47%
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $1 26m
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $3 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 3 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 3h
Trump meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $24 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $368.02 · official $368.02 (match) · 1742 history records