Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x5216…4a45 crypto 61 markets active 3d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$426 (-2%) realized −$426 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%35W / 26L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day27.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$790
14 days−$806
30 days−$806
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$302
sports 3% −$504
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 51% -17.4%
≤30d 61 -9.0% -17.6% 57% 54% -13.6%
≤90d 61 -9.0% -17.6% 57% 54% -13.6%
all 61 -9.0% -17.6% 57% 54% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 54% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 51% -21.8%
15% -32.7% 44% -29.4%
20% -39.3% 34% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$294 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses35 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage9d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day27.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$66 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $155 +$106 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $103 −$81 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $361 +$280 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $207 +$111 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $175 +$87 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $207 +$167 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $279 +$227 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$54 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $307 +$130 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$71 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $927 +$622 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $618 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $185 +$126 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $140 +$65 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $113 −$110 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $927 +$567 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $722 −$706 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $515 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $302 −$294 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $123 +$50 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $433 +$309 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$16 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 10 $511 −$504 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $207 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $715 +$282 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $206 +$119 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$40 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $412 +$243 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $912 −$886 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $321 −$312 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$102 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $567 +$388 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $521 +$330 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $1,579 −$1,548 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $164 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $107 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $118 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $261 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $124 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $641 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $310 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $318 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $207 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $122 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $264 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $206 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $262 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $134 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 246 history records