Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x5214…f042 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$167 (+63%) realized +$169 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$187
sports 25% −$16
crypto 10% $0
politics 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +66.7% +50.8% 43% 43% +71.2%
≤30d 7 +66.7% +50.8% 43% 43% +71.2%
≤90d 7 +66.7% +50.8% 43% 43% +71.2%
all 7 +66.7% +50.8% 43% 43% +71.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.8% 43% +71.2%
10% +36.4% 29% +54.8%
15% +23.2% 29% +39.9%
20% +11.1% 29% +26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$9 · ×7.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.72 per $1 lost it wins $5.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$169
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $26 +$153 +596%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 +$5 +13%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$40 +79%
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -11%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 26¢ $32 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $26 32h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 19¢ $9 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 49¢ $10 32h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 33h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $10 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $90 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $27 4d
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $27 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 4d
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 5d
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.22 · official $78.22 (match) · 28 history records