Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x5213…6a35 sports 687 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27,751 (+9%) realized +$30,211 · open −$2,460
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%274W / 447L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day270.6pace
Fees−$4,151est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$41,361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$64,538
other 26% +$8,924
crypto 1% +$550
world 1% +$399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 524 -27.9% -34.7% 28% 24% -20.7%
≤30d 721 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 34% -6.4%
≤90d 721 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 34% -6.4%
all 721 -4.8% -13.9% 38% 34% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover270.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 34% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -15.3%
15% -29.7% 32% -23.5%
20% -36.6% 31% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +63% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$431 vs −$244 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$41,361
Realized+$30,211
Unrealized−$2,460
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses274 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$4,151
Open positions103
Markets (closed)721 / 687
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$432
Trades / day270.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $850 $1,074 +$224 (+26%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 32¢ $850 $1,030 +$180 (+21%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $800 $1,013 +$213 (+27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,050 $980 −$70 (-7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 28¢ $634 $917 +$283 (+45%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 60¢ $850 $897 +$47 (+5%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 48¢ $850 $895 +$45 (+5%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 54¢ $850 $887 +$37 (+4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $850 $884 +$34 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $850 $865 +$15 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 60¢ $850 $857 +$7 (+1%)
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Katerina Siniakova 36¢ 36¢ $850 $856 +$6 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Denis Shapovalov 22¢ 22¢ $850 $850 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $850 $842 −$8 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 48¢ 48¢ $850 $841 −$9 (-1%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $922 $838 −$84 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 58¢ $850 $838 −$12 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs INOX Division 64¢ 66¢ $800 $831 +$31 (+4%)
Dublin: Yi Zhou vs Nicolas Mejia Nicolas Mejia 41¢ 40¢ $850 $829 −$21 (-2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 25¢ 28¢ $750 $825 +$75 (+10%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $850 $821 −$29 (-3%)
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 41¢ 42¢ $800 $810 +$10 (+1%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $790 $804 +$14 (+2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 78¢ $500 $801 +$301 (+60%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 46¢ $850 $801 −$49 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 397 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Michael Zheng vs Dino Prizmic Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CD Guadalajara vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Jun 17 $414 −$414 -100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-03? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5) Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
CD Tolima vs. Atlético Nacional: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-05-31? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. FC Andorra: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $254 −$254 -100%
Pakistan Super League: Peshawar Zalmi vs Lahore Qalandars Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will FC Südtirol win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. Cuiabá EC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-04-26? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 17 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Huzhou: Rada Zolotareva vs Despina Papamichail Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $596 −$596 -100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Perez/Schuurs vs Boulter/Putintseva Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-24? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-27? Jun 17 $594 −$594 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 17 $399 −$399 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Zagreb: Stefan Dostanic vs Chris Rodesch Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Jun 17 $550 −$550 -100%
Francavilla: Facundo Acosta vs Henry Bernet Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Goiás EC vs. Botafogo FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Antonia Ruzic vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. SK Brann: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 17 $438 −$438 -100%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset Jun 17 $618 −$618 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $450 −$450 -100%
Gaziantep FK vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-05-21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Birmingham: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Kayla Day Jun 17 $760 −$760 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Göztepe SK win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
T20 Hong Kong Tri-Series, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Justo vs Miguel Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Jun 17 $204 −$179 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $15 5m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $6 9m
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $6 9m
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 22¢ $102 10m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $10 11m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $30 11m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $107 11m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 37¢ $213 35m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 36¢ $653 35m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 40m
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $826 44m
ITF Blois: Alevtina Ibragimova vs Mina Hodzic BUY Alevtina Ibragimova 52¢ $0 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $161 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 23¢ $870 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $50 1h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $51 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $13 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 64¢ $800 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $96 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $35 2h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 32¢ $2 2h
ITF Blois: Lucie Nguyen Tan vs Alina Granwehr BUY Lucie Nguyen Tan 42¢ $4 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41,361.39 · official $41,363.31 (match) · 3500 history records