Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x5210…8cff other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 185d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$198 (-6%) realized +$100 · open −$298
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$533per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$1,267
sports 14% −$298
politics 6% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +44.5% +30.7% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤30d 3 +44.5% +30.7% 100% 100% +35.5%
≤90d 3 +44.5% +30.7% 100% 100% +35.5%
all 4 +8.4% -2.0% 75% 75% +25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 75% +25.7%
10% -11.3% 75% +13.7%
15% -19.9% 50% +2.7%
20% -27.8% 25% -7.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$422 vs −$198 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.41 per $1 lost it wins $6.41
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$298
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage185d
Avg bet$533
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Under 54¢ 52¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 0¢ $295 $0 −$295 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $594 +$181 +30%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $470 +$204 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,482 +$881 +60%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $152 6m
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $776 13m
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $675 31m
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $594 1h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $299 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $470 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,482 4h
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? BUY No 14¢ $198 185d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.98 · official $146.98 (match) · 9 history records